Imperfect Union

Shut up if you want to win. That seems to be the message French voters are sending Jacques Chirac. Monsieur President is campaigning hard to pass France's European Union constitution referendum, to be held May 29. Signs so far point to "non," which would mortally wound the constitution. Likely rejection by the Dutch a few days later would kill it outright.

The more Mr. Chirac talks about it, the more public support wanes. A recent poll shows the referendum losing 53% to 47%, a significant drop from seven months ago when 68% of voters favored it. The decline parallels the freefall in Mr. Chirac's popularity, which has been slip-sliding on a weak economy. The EU constitution has becoming a punching bag across the political spectrum: Lefties fear the erosion of the "social economy" and righties oppose Turkey's integration into the E.U. These being desperate times, European Commission President Jose Barroso is pulling out the scare tactics. A "no" vote "would be very bad news for the economy in France and Europe because investors want a scenario of confidence, many want certainties and security," he said.

At least he didn't revert to the once-standard hint that opponents of the EU were crypto-fascists longing to return to the world of the 1930s. On the economy, he may indeed be right. High taxes and strict employment laws make France a tough place for entrepreneurs. A small business owner there tells me he's leaning towards voting "yes" because he thinks it will save him money and hassle in the long run. He says he'll decide for sure after he's had time to read the constitution. He'd better get started soon. At about 300 pages, the text is long on technical legalese and light on the feel-good ideas that build popular rallies, though its alleged purpose is to encompass all existing EU treaties and make the new continental supergovernment more transparent and efficient.

All along, the French plan was to dominate the EU to protect French interests. But now there's a belief among business backers that a Europe 2.0 would actually increase competition among members, especially in service industries. Capital would flow to states with lower wages, taxes and operating costs (read: Eastern Europe), and nations with expensive welfare habits and lagging productivity would have to adapt, a point not lost on the leisurely French. But, if so, a vote to punish Mr. Chirac might turn out to be even more costly in the long run if it means France falls farther behind the world's most dynamic economies.